CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Technical selling pressure stayed in the corn market on additional long liquidation after prices failed on Friday after last week’s price rally. The markets in general showed a “risk-off” type trade as weakness was seen in many commodity and equity markets. December corn was 5 ¼ cents lower to 490 ¼.
• Weekly export inspections for corn were lackluster at 17.2 mb, though within expectations. Softer corn exports are expected in this window as soybeans shipments are the focus of US exporters. Regardless, corn export numbers were short of the needed weekly pace to reach the USDA’s 2.025 billion bushel export target.
• The corn harvest is expected to reach 59% complete on Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report.  This would be up from 43% last week, but rains across the Corn Belt last week may have slowed harvest progress.
• Cash basis on corn has improved, which could be signaling a potential fall low is placed for corn futures. The cash market has been supported by producers being slow sellers, and improved demand by end users reflecting decent margins and looking for corn supplies.
• Harvest pressure likely kicked in as prices pushed through the $5.00 level last week, only to retreat quickly. A wetter forecast could help support prices as harvest pace could be limited this week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, along with both soybean meal and oil, on harvest pressure and follow through technical selling. On Thursday and Friday, soybeans tested the 100-day moving average and failed both times. The 40, 100, and 200-day moving averages have all converged around the 13.20 level in November, which is acting as heavy resistance.
• Weekly export inspections came in very strong again, totaling 90.3 mb of soybeans for the week ending October 19, 2023. Total inspections are now 290 mb, which is up 3% from the previous year. China has become a more active buyer out of the PNW, as Brazil runs low on soybeans and deals with low water levels in the Amazonian rivers.
• Planting progress for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is estimated to be 29.84% complete, which is far below the 37.6% planted at this time last year, as heat and drought has caused some to wait for better conditions. There have also been reports of many producers re-planting their soy crop.
• Crop progress will be released later today, and expectations are that the soy crop will be reported as at least halfway complete, but the 7-day forecast is expected to be very wet for the central and western Corn Belt, which could delay further progress.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Weekly wheat export inspections were disappointing at 6.2 mb. Total 23/24 inspections have now reached 254 mb, which is down 27% from last year, and are running below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export goal.
• Argentina has had significant drought conditions, but they have recently received good rains as well. Much more will be needed to improve crops and soil moisture, but at this point any precipitation is welcomed. General concern about global production remains, especially of higher protein wheat, which may account for Minneapolis futures rallying more than Chicago or KC today.
• Australia’s wheat crop, according to some private estimates, could now be as high as 26-28 mmt, while the USDA is projecting a 24.5 mmt harvest. The increased production may be a result of recent rains that have eased the drought and helped to stabilize the crop or even increase yields.
• According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, their wheat harvest at 22.3 mmt is up 15% year on year. However, their exports of wheat total only 4.1 mmt, which is down 6.7% year on year. Recently there has not been much talk surrounding the Black Sea, but it is being reported that up to 20 vessels have safely traveled via their humanitarian corridor since it was opened. It is unclear, though, what the contents and size of the ships has been.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Nearby Class III futures faced single-digit losses to start the week. The second month November contract fell 2 cents to $17.39.
• Spot cheese saw blocks unchanged and barrels down a quarter cent, closing at $1.67125/lb. Spot whey was unchanged on 12 trades.
• For Class IV futures, November dropped 8 cents while the December contract was up 2 cents. The rest of the contracts were unchanged.
• Spot powder was unchanged and remains in an uptrend, while spot butter added to last week’s losses with a penny lower close Monday.

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Author

John Heinberg