TFM Morning Update 11-06-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as it finds support from a lower dollar, higher crude oil, and higher soybeans.
Weather in the US is dry, and the seven-day forecast for the Corn Belt is very dry as well which should help wrap up harvest. South America remains dry and is becoming a concern.
This Thursday, the USDA will release their WASDE report, and many analysts are expecting that the national corn yield will be increased closer to 173.3 bpa as reports of good yields are coming in.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers for the week ending October 31 increasing their net short position by 44,002 contracts to 144,432 contracts.

Soybeans are firmly higher again this morning after two consecutive days of strong gains. The November contract has broken solidly above the 100-day moving average which had been tough resistance.
Soybean meal is bear spread this morning with the two front months lower, but still near contract highs. Soybean oil is higher thanks to higher palm oil and crude oil.
South American weather has been a key part in this rally with the northern areas of Brazil and Argentina very dry with hotter conditions incoming which will force some to replant. Southern Brazil is far too wet and continues to flood.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as buyers of 15,400 contracts which increased their net long position to 23,153 contracts.

Wheat is lower this morning with KC and Minneapolis slightly off their recent lows. Both contracts did manage to put in a small reversal last week.
Over the weekend, Russian air strikes hit the Ukrainian port of Odesa wounding eight, damaging the port, and a nearby museum. This type of news has done little to get traders excited lately.
The expansion of winter wheat planted acreage in the northern hemisphere is expected to be limited in 2024 due to depressed prices.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials continuing to add to their short position. They sold 9,321 contracts increasing their net short position to 101,575 contracts.

Amanda Brill