TFM Midday Update 11-03-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday after coming within a tick of the September low at 4.68 in December. Support is coming from a decline in the dollar and higher soybeans and wheat.
Yesterday, the USDA reported corn export sales at 29.5 mb which was on the low side, and Mexico was a top buyer picking up more than half of the total sales.
Outside markets are also supporting the grain complex today with the Dow higher after the Jobs report was released that showed 150,000 jobs added in October which was less than expected. This may keep the Fed from raising interest rates in December.
After reports of better-than-expected yields in some areas, StoneX has increased their estimate for the national corn yield to 175.7 bpa. This is higher than the USDA’s guess, but this could point to the USDA decreasing their estimate in next week’s WASDE report.

Soybeans are firmly higher again today following yesterday’s gain of 13 cents in the January contract. Jan beans broke out above their 100-day moving average and reached their highest level since September 18.
January soybean meal is up 1.37% on strong export demand, and soybean oil is higher as well despite lower crude today. The lower US dollar and higher equity market is likely supporting the entire soy complex.
Private exporters reported sales of 131,150 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
In Brazil, many soybean growing areas are still too dry, and there have been some reports of large fields of recently planted soybeans being ripped up in order to plant cotton instead. This would also limit those areas from plantings of corn.

Wheat is higher today as Chicago rebounds from oversold technicals, and KC and Minneapolis wheat rebound from contract lows. The lower US dollar is supportive for wheat.
FAO-AMIS has cut its estimate of the world wheat stockpiles for 23/24 to 315.1 mmt which is down from last month’s 319.3 mmt.
Despite Australia’s smaller-than-anticipated wheat crop due to drought, China has been an active buyer as it leaves US wheat as a last resort.
Ukrainian food exports have risen by 15% in October to 4.8 mmt due to the creation of their own humanitarian corridor which primarily shipped grains to Europe and Africa.

Amanda Brill