TFM Morning Update 11-07-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning in what appears to be a risk off day for all commodities with the dollar higher and crude oil lower.
Yesterday evening, the USDA released the crop progress report which showed the corn crop at 81% harvested, slightly below the average trade guess but above the 5-year average of 77%.
On Thursday the USDA will release the WASDE report, and the average trade guesses are for yields to be slightly increased to 173.2 bpa, and for ending stocks to increase by 18 mb.
The USDA attaché in Brazil sees their 23/24 corn crop at 130 mmt. Planted acreage is expected to decline due to tight profit margins.

Soybeans are slightly lower with the rest of the grain complex this morning but remain elevated and are firmly above the 100-day moving average.
Soybean meal is bull spread with the two front months higher and deferred contracts lower, and soybean oil is lower with a decline in crude oil today. Crush margins remain supportive.
Crop progress saw the soybean harvest at 91% complete, slightly below the average trade guess, but still above the 5-year average of 86%.
Thursday’s WASDE report will be interesting and we will see how much, if at all, they lower yields. The average trade guess expects a decline in yields of just 0.1 bpa, so little change is expected.

All three wheat contracts are lower this morning in the general risk off environment today, but yesterday’s poor export inspections have added more pressure.
Export inspections were just 71,608 metric tons which was far below trade guesses, and was an all time low in records that date back as far as 1983.
The hot and dry weather conditions remain a concern in Brazil and Argentina, and wheat volume available to export are expected to shrink. Argentinian production may total just 14.5 mmt.
Crop progress showed winter wheat at 90% planted, 75% emerged, and rated 50% good to excellent. The crop rating was above the trade guess, and above the 30% a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill