TFM Morning Update 11-10-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but has traded either side of unchanged in the overnight session after yesterday’s WASDE fueled selloff
Yesterday, the USDA revised their estimate of the national corn yield much higher than traders had anticipated from 174 bpa to 174.9 bpa which increased the already large ending stocks.
December corn had its lowest close since September of 2021 as prices are under pressure from large ending stocks and poor export demand.
South American weather remains either too hot and dry or too wet depending on the region, and this has caused planting delays that will carry on to delay corn plantings.

Soybeans are slightly lower again this morning after yesterday’s selloff reaction to the WASDE report, although the reported numbers weren’t extremely bearish.
The USDA increased the national soybean yield slightly to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa which caused a negative reaction because estimates called for yields to be unchanged, but it was not a large adjustment and increased ending stocks only slightly to a still tight 245 mb.
The Brazilian forecast remains hot and dry, but recent GFS models have added slight chances of rainfall in the northern part of Mato Grosso in about 10 days.
Malaysian October palm oil inventories are at a 4-year high at the end of October despite greater than expected exports. Inventories rose by 5.84% from the previous month.

All three wheat contracts are slightly lower this morning but have stayed away from their recent lows in a potential attempt to make a bottom.
Yesterday, the USDA lowered wheat production in both Argentina and India but raised production in Russia which resulted in a slightly higher ending stocks number.
A ship carrying over 35,000 metric tons of French wheat is headed to New York as imports surge due to a decline in the domestic harvest.
Ukrainian grain deliveries to Black Sea ports have risen over the past week due to the successful implementation of their own export corridor. Exports have primarily been to Africa and Europe.

Amanda Brill