TFM Midday Update 11-09-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 40.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 32.5 mb were below the 41.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.025 bb for 23/24.
Brazil looks mostly dry for the next 10 days, with temperatures in some areas expected to exceed 100 degrees.
Falling energy prices over the past several sessions are raising concern about ethanol and biofuel margins.
December corn remains in a narrow trading range. The 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages all converge around 4.83. This may be an important resistance level, but if broken, it could allow corn to rally.

The USDA reported an increase of 39.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 82.2 mb were above the 31.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.755 bb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 1,044,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 662,500 mt for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Despite the current dry pattern Brazil has some rain in the second week of the forecast, days 11-15. It remains to be seen if that rain materializes, but the change to the pattern is offering some weakness to the soybean market, with likely profit taking as well.
CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production by 400,000 mt to 162.4 mmt, similar to the current USDA estimate. However, private group Ag Resource, decreased their estimate to 156.5 mmt.

The USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 4.9 mb were below the 14.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb for 23/24.
Yesterday there was talk that a Russian missile struck a vessel in the Black Sea. The reaction in the wheat market has since cooled, with all three US wheats trading lower this morning.
December Chicago wheat hit the highest level in two weeks, yesterday. It is currently trading about 40 cents above the September contract low of 5.40 but needs some friendly news to break out of the sideways to lower pattern.
Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will have 60 mmt of wheat to export in the coming year. This is about 10 mmt higher than most estimates. If Russia’s estimate of a 93 mmt crop is to be believed, however, this could also be true.

Brandon Doherty