TFM Morning Update 11-14-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning due to a new forecast for the driest areas of central and northeastern Brazil that is showing moderate rain amounts over the next 7 days.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 88% of the corn crop has been harvested which was slightly below trade expectations but above the 5-year average of 86%.
Yesterday, Brazilian corn futures went limit up due to a lack of farmer selling and a major decline in the purchases of safrinha corn seed.
Yesterday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials adding to their short position by 24,156 contracts for the week ending November 7 increasing their net short position to 168,588 contracts.

Soybeans are lower this morning along with corn after yesterday’s impressive rally led by soybean meal. Today, soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
A large part of this rally has been due to South American weather, so this wetter change in the forecast may pressure prices. On the other hand, the already wet parts of southern Brazil will be in worse shape.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 95% of the soybean crop harvested which was slightly below the average trade guess but still higher than the 5-year average.
Yesterday’s CFTC data showed funds as net buyers as of November 7 adding 45,445 contracts to their net long position bringing it to 68,598 contracts.

Wheat is trading lower this morning and although it closed higher yesterday, it did not get as much support from the rest of the grain complex as trade would have liked to see.
Prices remain near contract lows due to poor export sales. Yesterday, weekly export inspections were a meager 207k tons, down 26% from the previous year.
Crop progress showed 93% of the winter wheat crop planted which was in line with the 5-year average. 81% of the crop is emerged, and 47% was rated good to excellent, down 3 points from last week.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials offsetting some of their net short position by 9,313 contracts reducing their net short position to 92,262 contracts.

Amanda Brill