TFM Morning Update 12-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading near unchanged in a tight 2 1/2 cent range in anticipation of today’s USDA WASDE update.
Weekly export sales were released yesterday. Weekly corn sales came in at just under 51 mb, with the total commitment at 1.014 bb, 35% higher than last year.
The USDA will release the next WASDE report today at 11:00 a.m. CST. Expectations are for slight reductions in US corn ending stocks due to small demand adjustments from 2.156 billion bushels to 2.152 billion bushels.
CONAB estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 118 mmt, down from the USDA’s last estimate of 129 mmt. Current trade estimates that the USDA will put that crop at 127 mmt in today’s report.

The soybean complex is trading higher this morning, showing small gains across the board in all three commodities, with soybeans in the upper end of a relatively tight 7-cent range.
Weekly soybean sales came in at 56 mb in yesterday’s weekly sales update from the USDA. Total commitments are currently running 16% below last year, where the USDA is projecting a 12% decline.
There are few changes expected in today’s USDA report. The trade estimates US 23/24 ending stocks to come in at 242 mb versus last month’s reported 245 mb. The USDA may raise domestic crush and lower exports in equal amounts to reflect changes in demand.
CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 160 mmt, down 2 mmt from its previous estimate, and the USDA’s current estimate of 163 mmt. There are some private estimates as low as 155 mmt due to the adverse weather conditions.

The wheat complex is trading mostly lower across all three classes with Chicago wheat the weakest as traders likely square positions ahead of today’s USDA update.
Today’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat with little to no changes expected to last month’s 23/24 ending stocks estimate of 684 mb.
The recent wheat sales to China that have added fuel to the rally in the wheat markets, may indicate that the UDSA’s current 700 mb export goal is too low, though they are not expected to be reflected in today’s monthly update.
Russia continues to dominate the world wheat market with offers that were $20/mt below France and $60 below Romania for an Egyptian tender of 440 mt.
Scattered showers are forecasted for the US southern Plains and should help with the dry conditions.

Scott Masters