CORN
- The USDA reported an increase of 50.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25.
- The 50 day moving average for March corn is at about 4.94 and remains a resistance level, with March futures remaining below the moving average since October 24th.
- CONAB lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate by about 1 mmt to 118.5 mmt. This is well below the last USDA estimate of 129 mmt.
- Yesterday’s ethanol data showed production at 1.076 million barrels per day, which was up 65,000 from last week. This is the highest in 5 months and now above pace to meet the USDA’s goal for ethanol grind.
- The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 2.157 bb, versus 2.156 bb in November.
SOYBEANS
- The USDA reported an increase of 55.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24.
- The USDA also reported private export sales of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
- Customs data from China showed 7.9 mmt of soybean imports in November. This is up 8% from last year, and year to date imports are up 13% from last year at about 90 mmt so far.
- CONAB lowered their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2 mmt to 160 mmt. For reference, the last USDA estimate was 163 mmt.
- The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 242 mb, versus 245 mb in November.
WHEAT
- The USDA reported an increase of 13.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a reduction of 0.3 mb for 24/25.
- With the recent US wheat sales to China, the USDA export goal of 700 mb may be too low. This will likely not be reflected in tomorrow’s WASDE report, but that number could be raised by 15-25 mb down the road.
- Egypt is tendering for more wheat – at this time Russia remains the cheapest offer, around $260 per ton FOB.
- March Chicago wheat did eke out a positive close yesterday and was also above the 100 day moving average. At midday today, it is trading lower, but has come well off session lows. If it can manage another close in the green, that would be the eighth higher session in a row.
- The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 684 mb, unchanged from November.
Author
Brandon Doherty