CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures followed the strength in other grains to push higher into the close at the end of the session on Thursday. March corn added 3 ¾ cents on the trading session.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The USDA reported an increase of 1.289 mmt (50.7 mb) of corn export sales for last week. Corn sales commitments now total 1.014 bb for 23/24 and are up 35% from a year ago.
• The US corn export program is beginning to ramp up as the calendar moves closer to the new year.  Currently, US corn has an advantage in price over competing supplies out of Brazil and Argentina until the March time window.
• CONAB estimated Brazil’s total corn crop for 23/24 at 118.53 mmt down from previous estimates of 119.02 MMT. If realized, corn production would be down 13.42 mmt versus last year, or a drop of approximately 11%. CONAB cited the biggest reason for the lower production was due to reduced planted areas.
• The USDA will release the next WASDE report on Friday morning at 11:00 a.m. CST. Expectations are for slight reductions in US corn ending stocks due to small demand adjustments from 2.156 billion bushels to 2.152 billion bushels. The market may be more focused on adjustments to the Brazilian corn and soybean production due to the difficult weather from early in the growing season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with the March contract closing above the 200-day moving average, following a day of good export sales and support from significantly higher soybean oil. Soybean meal was mixed with lower closes in the two front months, but higher in deferred months.
• For the week ending November 30, the USDA reported an increase of 55.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. This was down 20% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 49.1 mb were above the 28.2 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to China, Spain, and the Netherlands.
• Following the good export sales report, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year. Exports have picked up in the window that Brazil is planting their soybean crop.
• Some private analysts have lowered their outlook for the Argentinian soybean production, the world’s largest exporter of soy products, and this may have given soybean oil a boost today.
• There are few changes expected in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. US 23/24 ending stocks are estimated to come in at 242 mb versus November’s reported 245 mb. Whereas South American production may see some more changes. Argentina’s production is expected to come in at 48.2 mmt versus last month’s 48 mmt, and Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to drop to 112.9 mmt versus 114.5 mmt last month.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat recovered from yesterday’s losses in all three US futures classes today. In fact, the grain complex as a whole reversed from the previous day with higher closes across the board in corn and soybeans too. March Chicago wheat, which did barely close higher yesterday, has now closed higher for eight sessions in a row.
• Today, the USDA reported an increase of 13.1 mb for 23/24 wheat export sales, but a reduction of 0.3 mb for 24/25. The recent sales to China may mean that the USDA’s 700 mb export goal could be too low. With some private guesses suggesting it may need to be up to 30 mb higher. This is unlikely to be reflected in tomorrow’s report, but could be changed in the future.
• Tomorrow’s WASDE report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat. In fact, the pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is unchanged from last month at 684 mb. As for the world numbers, the average pre-report ending stocks estimate comes in at 258.8 mmt, up just 0.1 mmt from last month’s number.
• While the carryout numbers are expected to see little change, it is possible that the USDA may make some revisions to global production numbers. Recently, both Canada and Australia increased their wheat production estimates above the last USDA estimates.
• The national wheat harvest in Argentina is reported to be 37% complete, in line with 38% last year. Estimates of their wheat production range from 13.5 to 14.7 mmt, and the USDA’s last estimate was 15 mmt. Therefore, it is possible there will be a revision lower tomorrow. Some areas of Argentina are seeing poorer yields due to early dryness, but the coastal growing regions received good rain with yields said to more than offset any losses in the dry areas.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After an encouraging start to the week, Class III prices were sharply lower today with the January contract down 40 cents to $16.59.
• This came on a day when the block/barrel average fell 1.50 cents and spot whey was down 0.75 cents.
• Class IV futures were unchanged to lower on a quiet trading day. The 2024 average sits at $19.67.
• While spot butter was unchanged at $2.67/lb, spot powder was down three quarters of a cent to close at $1.1725/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg