CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices faded from the highs after the USDA report. Additional purchases by China of wheat and soybeans, and a corn sale to “Unknown destinations” helped support the market early in the session, but prices faded after the USDA report’s release. March corn lost 2 ¼ cents on the day, but finished ¾ cents higher on the week.
• The USDA raised export projections by 25 mb to 2.100 billion bushels for the marketing year in the USDA WASDE report on Friday morning. The USDA cited recent strength in export demand as the rationale. This lowered projected carryout to 2.131 billion bushels for ending stock for the 23/24 marketing year, below analyst expectations.
• The slip in prices moved March futures back to the key support level of 485. March futures have traded around this price point the past six sessions and have consistently been in this area since the start of November.
• The USDA announced a private exporter sale of corn to Unknown Destination for 6.5 mb for the 23/24 marketing year this morning. The export sales help support overnight and morning corn prices.
• In the WASDE report, USDA left Brazil and Argentina corn production unchanged from their November projections, taking a “wait and see” approach to the corn crops. On Thursday, CONAB estimated Brazil’s total corn crop for 23/24 at 118.53 mmt, down from previous estimates of 119.02 mmt. The USDA is forecasting a crop of 129 mmt.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower following today’s lackluster WASDE report, which saw very few changes from last month’s report. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well, with larger losses in soybean oil.
• For the week, January soybeans lost 21 cents, January soybean meal lost 8.0 dollars, and January soybean oil lost 1.25 cents. This comes as non-commercials have been exiting a portion of their net long positions with improvements in South American weather.
• In today’s USDA report, US ending stocks were unchanged at 245 mb, which was mostly in line with expectations. World ending stocks were reduced slightly, Argentinian soybean production was unchanged at 48.0 mmt, and Brazilian soybean production was reduced to 161.0 mmt from 163.0 mmt.
• This morning, the USDA reported a private exporter sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower in all three US classes today after a relatively neutral WASDE report. The US 23/24 wheat ending stocks number was lowered to 658 mb, versus 684 mb last month. The world carryout came in at 258.2 mmt, compared to 258.7 in November.
• US wheat exports were raised 25 mb from last month’s estimate, now at 725 mb for 23/24. The negativity at the close may be a reflection of a higher world production number though, at 783.01 mmt versus 781.98 mmt last month. With the recent run higher, profit taking was also a likely culprit.
• Aside from today’s USDA report, there was also another announced sale of US wheat to China for the 23/24 marketing year, this time for 110,000 mt. Despite a lower close today, if these purchases continue, it will lend support to the market. On the other hand, rain forecasted for the US southern Plains next week may keep upside potential limited for now.
• Egypt’s most recent wheat tender for 420,000 mt was fulfilled by Russia at $260 per mt FOB. France’s offer at $268 was the next cheapest, with Romania following them. Given the competition, it is a bit surprising, albeit welcome, that China is purchasing US wheat.
• Today’s Jobs report indicated that the US added 199,000 jobs, and unemployment has fallen to 3.7%. This has the US Dollar Index higher, which may also have contributed to the negative close in wheat. Additionally, this may mean that the Federal Reserve sticks with their plan to have higher interest rates for longer; this may continue to affect commodity prices down the road.
• From a global perspective, as of the July 1, the beginning of their marketing year, Ukraine’s total grain harvest has reached 57.6 mmt. Of that total, 22.5 mmt is wheat, which is said to be up 16% year on year. Over in France, winter wheat planting is 89% complete as of December 4. Typically, they are done by the end of November, but significant rain delays were present this year. Additionally, 77% of the French crop is reported to be in good to excellent condition.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese saw an improvement of 4.25 cents from the previous week on good trading volume with 28 loads of cheese traded throughout the week.
• The butter market also saw a slight increase in price with spot butter closing out the week up 1.25 cents to close at $2.67/lb. Second month butter futures trended in the opposite direction losing 1.675 cents throughout the week.
• Class III futures were lower following pressure from a weaker cheese trade. The 2024 Class III average sits at $18.01/cwt after seeing a nearly 22 cent rally between Tuesday and Wednesday before falling the rest of the week.
• Second month Class IV futures saw its worse week since only November 6th dropping 28 cents. The 2024 Class IV average is at $19.60/cwt which is still a good premium to Class III.

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Author

Amanda Brill