TFM Midday Update 12-11-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the week following Friday’s WASDE report which revealed essentially no changes to corn production or outlook.
The USDA increased corn exports slightly in the report by 25 mb as demand has picked up, but the large ending stocks number of 2.13 billion bushels continues to pressure futures.
Over the weekend, it was reported that China would produce a record 288.8 mmt of corn this year which is up 4% from the previous year, but they will still need imports to meet their needs.
Weather in Brazil has improved with a generally more favorable forecast through January, but the crop is about 2 to 3 weeks behind due to the earlier hot and dry weather. The USDA still expects Brazilian production at 129 mmt.

Soybeans are trading higher today with support from both soybean meal and oil, along with a flash sale reported this morning to China.
This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
On Friday, prices slipped following a neutral WASDE report, but the fact that ending stocks remain so tight at 245 mb has supported the market. A reduction in Brazilian production to 161 mmt was slightly supportive.
South American soybeans are expected to benefit from improved rain chances, along with corn, into next year with heavier rains forecast in the central and northern regions.

Wheat is trading lower today after an impressive rally recently that was caused by a large net short position held by the funds and purchases of US wheat by China.
Short covering was a big reason for the rally in wheat recently, and if Chinese purchases don’t continue, funds may continue adding to their short positions again.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 23,764 contracts of wheat which brought their net short position to 96,222 contracts.
Ukraine is expecting to harvest a record 59.7 mmt of grain with wheat making up 22.2 mmt. The ongoing struggle will be safely exporting their grain.

Amanda Brill