TFM Morning Update 12-15-2023

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning in quiet trade that remains rangebound. The March contract is on track for a weekly loss of around 5 cents.
CONAB in Brazil has estimated their corn crop lower at 118.5 mmt from 137 mmt last year due to fewer acres with many of them damaged by the flooding in southern Brazil.
With reduced production of Brazil’s first crop corn, the second crop that will be planted over the next few months is more important, but will likely be delayed as a result of harvesting delays in soybeans.
Yesterday’s export sales report was strong again, and total shipments this year are up 32% from the previous year. Mexico has been responsible for nearly half of the corn purchases.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning and are on track for a small weekly gain as prices consolidate above the 200-day moving average.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning and is nearly unchanged on the week while soybean oil is bear spread and on track for a small weekly loss.
Argentina had shut down its office for export licenses on Monday but it has reopened today, and so far its new policy changes have caused a 54% reduction in the value of the Argentinian peso.
While the soy crop in Brazil is dealing with hot and dry conditions for another few days, Argentina has fared much better, and 60% of their bean crop is planted with only 4% in poor condition.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minneapolis maintaining higher prices. The March Chicago contract is on track to be unchanged for the week.
Yesterday’s export sales report which saw 54.8 mb of wheat sold the previous week was very impressive and the largest one-week sale since 2020 with China as the primary buyer.
In the US, rains are expected to fall between Nebraska and central Texas today which should benefit the winter wheat crop, but better chances in the southern Plains will come towards the end of the year.
Russia’s cheap wheat offers continue to keep global prices down, but the US has gotten cheap enough in the past few weeks to pick up some of that export business.

Amanda Brill