TFM Midday Update 1-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower near midday but has moved off its lows from earlier this morning. CONAB released numbers for Brazilian corn production that were higher than expected.
CONAB has only lowered their estimate for the Brazilian 23/24 corn crop to 117.6 mmt which is down from 118.53 mmt the previous month. Many analysts are expecting a lower number due to the early hot and dry conditions. The USDA’s previous guess was a lofty 129 mmt.
The window for US corn exports has just opened, and prices are competitive with Argentina and Brazil with US Gulf corn reportedly 20 cents per bushel cheaper than Argentinian corn.
Domestic corn demand has been firm as ethanol production has exceeded the USDA’s previous forecast for ethanol use. Friday’s report could feature supportive adjustments in demand.

Soybeans are trading lower today but have stayed rangebound over the past three days with support at 1235 in the March contract. Both soybean meal and oil are lower despite higher crude oil.
Today’s pressure is likely due to the numbers that CONAB released which were higher than expected at 155.27 mmt. Their previous guess was 160.18 mmt, but many private analysts have guesses closer to 152 mmt.
Adding to pressure in the soy complex is the closing window for export sales which was highlighted by poor inspections yesterday and the absence of a reported flash sale since December 19.
In Brazil, the largest farm cooperative received a large volume of soybeans which indicates that many of the earlier planted soybeans in drought areas were harvested early and likely with poor yields.

Wheat has turned slightly lower at midday but has been trying to turn positive as the Chicago contract in March continues to consolidate at the 100-day moving average.
Russia is still receiving the majority of wheat export business, but Japan is reportedly tendering for US and Canadian wheat, and wheat prices in India are rising making the US more competitive.
Traders are expecting Friday’s WASDE report to show a decline in the wheat seeding number for winter wheat, and some private analysts are projecting a decline of between 1.5 and 2 million acres.
The storms moving through the central and southern Plains have been beneficial for winter wheat areas and could see crop conditions improve further, but below freezing temperatures next week may be harmful.

Amanda Brill