TFM Morning Update 05-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after prices reversed yesterday afternoon and closed lower. The 10-day weather forecast is showing multiple systems moving through the Corn Belt, but the coverage may not be as heavy as previously thought.
The continuation of wet weather throughout this week will likely lead to more planting delays, and although work is getting done in some areas, this Monday’s crop progress report will likely still show planting pace behind the 5-year average.
Estimates for today’s corn export sales are in a range between 700k and 1,200k tons with the average guess at 903k. This would compare to 938k tons a week ago.

Soybeans are trading a bit higher this morning after posting losses yesterday as a result of a disappointing NOPA crush report. Soybean meal is slightly lower this morning while soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday, private exporters reported a sale of 180,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. While not guaranteed, unknown is often China, and this would be encouraging given the fear of retaliation for the new tariffs.
Estimates for today’s export sales report show soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with the average guess at 495k tons. This would be slightly above last week’s 434k tons.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC leading the way. The focus this week seems to be on global weather and the damage done to the Russian wheat crop by frosts.
In Kansas, the Wheat Quality Council has completed its tour of the state and estimated the average yield at 46.5 bpa which is above the USDA’s estimate last week of 38 bpa. Last year’s crop tour had an estimate of 30 bpa for Kansas.
Russia has said that the country has lost 830,000 hectares or over 20 million acres of sowing due to the frosts. This represents about 1% of the total growing area.

Amanda Brill