TFM Morning Update 05-20-2024

CORN

July corn is trading a few cents higher this morning, between its 50-day moving average just below its low at 451 1/2 and its 100-day moving average providing resistance at the high of 455 1/2.
This afternoon, the USDA will issue its weekly crop progress report. Corn planting is estimated to be about 73 – 76% complete. It is expected that there could be between 10 – 12 million acres planted after May 20, increasing risk from potential heat and dryness.
Mexico is experiencing drought, and some think this could increase their import demand from the US.
Friday Commitment of Traders information was released by the CFTC, showing Managed funds covered just over 31,000 contracts the week prior. As of Tuesday May 14, they show a net short position of 71,171 contracts.

Soybeans are leading the soybean complex higher this morning as they follow through on Friday’s strength. Both meal and oil are showing minor gains of just $0.10 and 0.08 cents respectively.
In this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, soybean planting is expected to have progressed to 45 – 47% complete. More rain this week could slow progress.
China has been a healthy buyer of Brazilian soybeans. Recent purchases have increased Brazil’s export prices, though they remain significantly below US offers.
So far China has not been named as a buyer of any new crop US soybeans, though last week 60,000 mt were sold to “unknown destinations” which are often later switched to China.
Between May 8 and May 14, the CFTC reported that Managed funds net sold a mere 582 contracts. Their net short position as of May 14, is just over 42,000 contracts.

The wheat complex is higher this morning led by Chicago and KC as all three classes trade near the top of their respective ranges.
Over the weekend, there were some severe storms that went through the Plains may have caused some damage, with more heavy rain expected, though it is expected to miss much of the drier Southwestern areas.
The market continues to absorb news regarding the state of Russia’s wheat crop. The Russian Union of Grain Exporters estimate that Russia’s wheat exports could total 46.9 million metric tons, 5.1 mmt lower than the USDA’s current estimate. The group also estimates the wheat crop at 86.8 mmt versus the USDA’s 88 mmt.
CFTC data on Friday revealed that Managed funds net bought about 14,100 contracts of Chicago wheat between May 8 and May 14, which brought their net short position as of May 14 to 28,251 contracts. For comparison, as of April 16, Managed funds were net short 96,400 contracts.

Scott Masters