TFM Midday Update 5-20-2024

CORN

This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show corn planting at about 70% complete, which is slightly behind the five year average of 75%.
The seven day forecast is wet for much of the US corn belt. This may further hamper planting efforts and begins to raise concern about the portion of the crop that could end up pollinating during a less than optimal timeframe. An estimated 10-12 million corn acres could be planted beyond May 25.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop unchanged at 46.5 mmt, still about 6.5 mmt below the last USDA projection.

The soybean losses in southern Brazil are providing support to US futures as well as world vegetable oil prices. Additionally, there is concern about the flooding impact on logistics and shipping out of the Rio Grande port.
US soybean planting progress is expected to reach about 45-47% complete on this afternoon’s crop progress report.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop production unchanged at 50.5 mmt.
Brazilian soybean premiums are increasing, narrowing the gap to make the US more competitive. So far China has not purchased any US new crop soybeans.

Wheat is trading sharply higher at midday, potentially due to the extended forecast for Russia and Ukraine, which looks to remain mostly dry. The US southern plains may be drier than normal too.
According to APK-Inform, recent frosts in Ukraine have also been an issue, and may have reduced wheat yields by as much as 20-30%.
An estimate by StoneX suggests that western Australia’s wheat crop may reach around 4.5 mmt this year, significantly lower than the usual 10 mmt output from the region. Despite this, Australia’s total wheat production is expected to increase by 11%, reaching 29.3 mmt.

Brandon Doherty