TFM Midday Update 5-21-2024

CORN

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that US corn is 70% planted, just below the average of 71%, and last year’s 76%. In addition, 40% of the crop is emerged.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Spain for the 23/24 marketing year in the amount of 110,000 mt. Additionally, there was a sale of 113,050 mt of corn to Mexico, with half for 23/24 and half for 24/25.
Rains this week are expected to be heaviest in the central Midwest – lighter amounts may fall in the western corn belt.
Due to weather issues this spring, there is talk that up to a million acres of US corn may be switched to soybeans or prevent plant.

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that US soybeans are 52% planted, ahead of the average 49% pace, but below last year’s 61%. In addition, 26% of the crop is emerged.
There are rumors that China may have purchased 2 cargoes of soybeans from the US Pacific Northwest yesterday, for July and August delivery.
Soybeans may be under pressure this morning due to a marketing year low on yesterday’s export inspections at 6.8 mb. Global vegetable oil prices are also lower this morning, pressuring soybean oil.
More heavy rains and flooding are expected over the next week or so in Rio Grande do Sul, some of which may make its way north to Santa Catarina.

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report said that winter wheat was rated 49% good to excellent, a 1% drop from the previous week; 69% of the crop is headed. In addition, 79% of the US spring wheat crop is planted, well above the 65% average, and 57% last year; 43% of that crop is emerged.
July Chicago wheat settled yesterday at the highest level since early August of 2023. With the recent rise in price, some technical indicators show wheat to have become overbought.
IKAR has reportedly lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production to 83.5 mmt from 86 mmt previously. For reference, the USDA’s estimate is 88 mmt. IKAR also lowered their Russian wheat export projection by 2 mmt to 45 mmt, whereas the USDA is estimating 52 mmt.

Brandon Doherty