TFM Midday Update 6-10-2024

CORN

According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 80,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in corn to 212,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
The European weather model shows less than normal rainfall for the US corn belt over the next 10 days, excluding the northwestern areas.
US corn futures may be finding some support from the rise in South American FOB values, with Brazil’s corn basis said to have increased 6-12 cents on Friday.
Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for corn ratings to be historically high at around 75% good to excellent.

According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 45,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in soybeans to 60,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
NOPA reportedly increased their estimate of April crush by 3 mb to 169.6 mb. This is said to have been done because of a reporting error with the initial data.
Soybean oil is lower this morning, potentially from pressure in the palm oil market, which is down 1.5% on Monday. However, meal is higher, and this is being reflected in the mixed trade for soybean futures.
Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for soybean ratings, like corn, to be historically high at 73% to 75% good to excellent.

As of last Tuesday, managed funds added only 8,000 short contracts to their position in the wheat complex. Therefore, recent market weakness was not necessarily caused by speculative selling.
According to APK Inform, they estimate that Ukraine’s total grain harvest will fall to 52.7 mmt, a reduction of 12%, driven by worsening drought in the eastern area.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning; if they have a lower close, it would be for the sixth consecutive session. This is offering weakness to the US market.
World wheat values declined after news last week that Turkey had decided to cut off wheat imports through October 15. This may result in 2.5 mmt of wheat not being exported from Russia (to Turkey) which would normally occur in the June – October timeframe.

Brandon Doherty