TFM Morning Update 07-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after losing over 17 cents in yesterday’s trade in the September contract due to better weather forecasts for the eastern Corn Belt. Yesterday’s Crop Progress was also slightly bearish.
Yesterday’s report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing by 1 point to 68% which compares to 55% at this time a year ago. 24% of the crop is silking which compares to 11% a week ago and 18% a year ago, and 3% is doughing which is above the 2% last year at this time.
The CFTC report was released yesterday due to the holiday delay, and it showed that as of July 2, funds sold 58,872 contracts of corn which brought their net short position to a near record 336,538 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning apart from the front month and are being further bull spread as demand for on hand cash soybeans grows, but traders expect a large crop this fall. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed soybean crop ratings increasing a point to 68% good to excellent which compares to 50% last year. There were significant improvements in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio. 34% of the crop is blooming which compares to the average of 28% and 9% are setting pods which compares to the average of 5%.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts.

Wheat is faring slightly better than corn and soybeans this morning with small gains in all three classes but has been unable to hold last week’s gains as crop conditions improve and harvest accelerates.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed winter wheat at 63% harvested which compares to 54% a week ago and the average of 52%. Spring wheat saw an improvement in good to excellent ratings up to 75% which compares to 72% a week ago and just 47% a year ago. 59% of the crop is headed which compares to 38% a week ago and the average of 60%.
As of July 2, funds were sellers of 3,487 contracts of Chicago wheat bringing their net short position to 73,974 contracts and were sellers of 6,031 contracts of KC wheat bringing that short position to 43,103 contracts.

Amanda Brill