TFM Morning Update 07-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day giving up most of yesterday’s gains as trade anticipates today’s WASDE report. While most of the bearishness for today’s report is likely priced in, the report could hold some surprises.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the soft side again with 21.2 mb of old crop corn sold, 4.6 mb of new crop, and shipments at 43.6 mb. China was the top buyer, but the general lack of good demand has been the biggest factor for prices.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop and increased it to 115.86 mmt which compared to last week’s guess of 114.14 mmt. The USDA will likely keep their estimate above CONAB’s today as it has done all season.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given up most of yesterday’s gains similar to corn. With favorable weather in the forecast, there is not enough bullish news to stop funds from continuing to sell across the ag complex. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Today at 11am central, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the low end of trade estimates with 7.6 mb of old crop sold, 7 mb of new crop, and shipments soft at 9.8 mb. China made its first purchase of new crop soybeans this week, but they will need to purchase more to move the market in a significant way.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower as trade anticipates a bearish USDA report today.
Expectations for today’s report are for total wheat production to rise by 37 mb and for ending stocks to rise by 29 mb to 787 mb on June 30, 2025. While it is expected to be bearish, much of it could be priced in at this point.
The Argentinian wheat forecast has been cut by 2.4% with the Rosario exchange citing less acreage than anticipated. Production is estimated at 20.5 mmt down from last month’s estimate of 21 mmt.

Amanda Brill