TFM Morning Update 08-02-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning which has put the December contract back above the $4.00 mark. The forecast for the Central Corn Belt has turned slightly drier over the next 7 days which may be providing support.
Overall, weather has been supportive and crop conditions in Illinois and Indiana are mostly good to excellent. A StoneX survey is forecasting a national average of 182.3 bpa in corn and total production of 15.207.
Over the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 23,000 contracts of corn which would nearly wipe out all of the contracts they bought back as of July 23.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but are still on track for around an 18-cent loss on the week at this point. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher, and processor margins have reached their highest levels in eight months.
First notice day for August soybeans was Wednesday and there were 37 deliveries reported this morning which now makes a total of 122. For soybean oil, there were 4 deliveries this morning which makes a total of 955 contracts delivered against the August contract.
As in corn, crop conditions in soybeans have been good with the most recent rating at 67% good to excellent for all soybeans. Yesterday, StoneX estimated the national soybean yield at 52.6 bpa with total production at 4.483 billion.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with prices hovering just above recent contract lows. Yesterday marked the second consecutively higher close this week in wheat as prices look for a bottom.
While yesterday’s export sales report was not great, inspections have been good, and the overall program is way above last year’s levels. Yesterday, Indonesia was the top buyer of wheat at 77k tons.
The winter wheat harvest in the US has been going well in South Dakota, but other northwestern states are dealing with crops that are stressed by a lack of rain. The near-term forecast for the northwestern Plains is expected to be dry over the next 7 days which is good for winter wheat harvest but could stress the spring wheat crop.

Amanda Brill