TFM Morning Update 08-05-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after losing over 6 cents last week as a result of overall good crop conditions. This morning, December futures are back below the 4-dollar mark. On Friday, prices were higher as a result of fund short covering.
As of this writing, the Dow is down 830 points which is over 2.10% as the stock market continues its sharp downturn with worries about recession back at the forefront. The move in equities is spilling into energies and therefore grains.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds bought back 23,453 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,096 contracts. This is the third week in a row that they have bought contracts back, but prices have moved lower.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract now just 8 cents away from breaking below 10 dollars. Soybean meal is trading lower, and soybean oil is being pulled lower as a result of the lower stock market and crude prices.
Weather is mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex, and Chicago wheat is leading the way lower. Prices remain about 13 cents off their contract lows.
The winter wheat harvest in the US has been going well in South Dakota, but other northwestern states are dealing with crops that are stressed by a lack of rain. The near-term forecast for the northwestern Plains is expected to be dry over the next 7 days which is good for winter wheat harvest but could stress the spring wheat crop.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 2,432 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 77,616 contracts. In KC wheat, they bought back 674 contracts which brings their net short position to 40,192 contracts.

Amanda Brill