CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The meltdown continues in the corn market as a disappointing set of new crop export sales, and a lack of bullish news pressure corn futures. At the close, December corn posted a new low close on the daily charts.
• December futures saw another day of weak technical price action. The close below the psychological 400 level leaves room for additional selling pressure, and the lack of bullish news and potential for larger production have the sellers in control of the market.
• Weekly export sales for corn totaled 19.1 mb (485,400 mt) for old crop corn, which was above expectations. New crop sales were very light at 9.8 mb (249,100 mt), which was well below the low end of expectations. With the new crop marketing year beginning on Sept 1, total new crop sales are disappointing given the potentially large supply coming to harvest soon.
• Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but the cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.
• On Monday, the USDA will release the August crop production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. The increase in potential production is limiting the market’s rally potential.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day with the September and November contracts both posting their lowest closes of the year. September soybeans broke below the crucial 10-dollar support level. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was bull spread with the front months higher and deferred lower.
• Today’s export sales report was ok with the USDA reporting an increase of 12.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 36.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 2% from last week and up 66% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 12.9 mb of soybeans were below the 15.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Germany.
• The North Dakota Soybean Processors facility near Casselton, ND was officially opened after two years of construction on the state’s second soybean crush facility. The plant is expected to process up to 42.5 million bushels of soybeans in the first year.
• Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average trade estimate for 24/25 carryout is 472 mb which is up 37 mb from July.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat closed lower in all three classes, despite a higher close in Paris milling wheat. Pressure likely stemmed from a lack of fresh friendly news, as well as weaker corn and soybean futures, both of which settled at new near-term lows today.
• The USDA reported an increase of 10.1 mb of wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year, as well as an increase of 4.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week, which totaled 18.2 mb, exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments at 316 mb are up 34% from last year.
• As of August 6, the USDA reported that 18% of US spring wheat acres were experiencing drought conditions, up from 16% the previous week. Drought conditions in winter wheat areas also increased, rising from 32% to 40% during the same period. While this may not significantly impact winter wheat at the moment, prolonged dryness could affect planting this fall.
• The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 66% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, increasing to 75% between November and January. This could exacerbate drought conditions in Argentina, where the wheat crop is already struggling. However, in the near term, Argentina is expected to receive rain in key growing regions, which should benefit wheat.
• Strategie Grains has lowered its 24/25 European Union soft wheat production estimate by 5.8 mmt to 116.6 mmt. If accurate, this would mark the lowest production in six years, down from 127.2 mmt last year. The decline is primarily attributed to a reduced French crop and a smaller German harvest.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a large rally over the last two days, the September Class III contract fell 22 cents today to close at $20.58.
• Spot whey has fallen nearly 4 cents after hitting a two-year high a week ago. Spot cheese was down less than half a cent today, still hanging above $1.95/lb.
• Class IV futures were all unchanged today with no trade volume. The second month contract remains at $21.69.
• Spot butter was down a half cent on 3 loads traded while powder gave back 1.25 cents, finishing at $1.2175/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill