TFM Morning Update 08-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with both the September and December contracts below 4 dollars. Trade is expecting a bearish USDA report at 11am central with the main concern being an increase in yield estimates.
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding in the northwest Corn Belt, but yield is expected to come in at a record high 182.1 bpa, this would be up 1.1 bpa from last month.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 52,551 contracts of corn as of August 6 which leaves them net short 242,545 contracts. Despite that funds have been buying contracts back for the past 4 weeks straight, prices have declined, which points to commercial selling.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with both September and December contracts now below the 10-dollar mark. As in corn, trade is expecting a bearish USDA report. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean meal is lower to start the day.
In Argentina, the strike at soybean processing plants has entered its 7th day, and 36 ships which were set to transport the recently crushed soybean meal and oil are delayed. This is supportive to US meal and oil.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24/25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July, if realized this will be the highest carryout estimate in five years.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but prices remain off their contract lows, and Chicago wheat posted a higher close on the week last Friday. Spring wheat ended the week lower as the eastern portion of the crop nears harvest with production expected to be large.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month. Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 6,284 contracts of wheat which leaves them net short 71,332 contracts. This position has not changed much since the end of July.

Amanda Brill