TFM Morning Update 08-13-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after prices rebounded yesterday on a more neutral WASDE report for corn than expected, but producers have been quick to sell any rallies. Yesterday, December futures made a new contract low.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating unchanged in corn at 67%. 94% of the crop is silking which compares to 88% a week ago and is on par with the 5-year average of 94%. 60% is in the dough stage and 18% is dented.
Yesterday’s WASDE report saw an increase in the national yield estimate to 183.1 bpa which was well above the average trade guess of 182.2 and above last month’s guess of 181.0. Harvested acreage was lowered by 800,000 acres due to flooding, but the production estimate and new crop ending stocks were increased.

Soybeans are continuing their slide lower this morning after yesterday’s USDA report which was bearish for soybeans. The November contract came within 2 cents of taking out the life of contract low this morning at $9.64. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, but is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish for soybean on nearly all fronts. The yield was raised to 53.2 bpa from 52.0 last month and was above the average trade guess. Acreage was increased, production estimates rose, and new crop ending stocks were increased to 560 mb from 435 mb last month. Argentinian production was lowered slightly, but Brazilian production was unchanged.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Prices were lower yesterday as well despite a neutral to slightly friendly WASDE report.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat crop ratings falling to 72% good to excellent from 74% last week. 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested which compares to 6% last week and the 5-year average of 21%. The winter wheat harvest is 93% complete which compares to 88% last week and the 5-year average of 91%.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed all wheat production falling due to smaller than expected spring wheat acreage. As a result, new crop ending stock estimates were lowered to 828 mb from 856 mb last month.

Amanda Brill