TFM Morning Update 08-16-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday prices moved higher taking out the previous day’s high before sliding into the end of that day. Export sales were not supportive and continued beneficial weather has trade expecting a big crop this fall.
So far, December corn is only slated to lose just over a cent on the week The CFTC report which will be released later today will likely show that funds have bought back more corn contracts which points to producers selling old crop to make room in the bins.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 4.7 mb of corn for 23/24 and an increase of 31.5 mb for 24/25. This was below expectations for old crop but within trade guesses for new crop. Mexico was the top buyer at 286k tons.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after futures ended unchanged yesterday after posting gains earlier in the day. November futures remain 4 cents above Wednesday’s low. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
Yesterday, soybeans were unable to rally despite a NOPA crush report which saw July crush 5.5% higher than the previous month and at a record high level for any July. Export sales were also above trade expectations, but the weather outlook and estimated crop size continue to add pressure.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.1 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 49.4 mb for 24/25 with unknown destinations showing up as the largest buyer at 503k tons.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with Chicago and Minneapolis off their lows but KC making a new contract low as the spring wheat harvest advances with good conditions.
The International Grain Council has lowered its estimates for global grain stockpiles in the 24/25 season. EU wheat production is seen 3.9m tons lower than July’s forecast, and world wheat stockpiles are expected to be down 4m tons from the last estimate.
Germany is now expected to reap the smallest grain harvest since 2018 as a result of reduced acreage and lower yields. Harvest is expected to reach 39.1m tons which compares with the annual requirement of 40m tons. The 2023 harvest came in at 42.6m tons.

Amanda Brill