TFM Morning Update 08-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after the December contract made new lows on Friday but lost just 2-1/2 cents on the week. The 7-day forecast is dry for most of the Corn Belt which is supporting prices.
The dry weather over the next week has trade slightly worried that ear fill could be impacted. Last week, DTN finished their Digital Yield Tour and found that Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana were among the highest yielding states, but DTN found yields that were slightly lower than USDA estimates.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds resuming their selling of grains. They sold 6,462 contracts of corn as of August 13 which left them net short 249,007 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the week after the November contract made new lows on Friday and the contract lost 45-1/2 cents on the week. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean is lower despite gains in palm oil prices.
Ukraine’s 2024 soybean harvest is forecast to make a record at 5.7 mmt as a result of a larger than expected sowing area and despite drought conditions. This compares to last year’s harvest of 5 mmt. Exports could reportedly exceed 3.1 mmt in the 24/25 season.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans as of August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but are being led down by Chicago wheat. Futures are likely following Paris milling wheat which was down overnight to its contract lows.
In Russia, wheat yields are reportedly running 22% below last year at 4 tons a hectare which compares to 5.1 tons a hectare last year. They have harvested 59.8m tons as of August 14 which is down 3.2m tons from this same time last year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of wheat by 1,956 contracts which left them net short 73,288 contracts. Since the 13th, funds were estimated to have sold an additional 250 contracts.

Amanda Brill