TFM Midday Update 08-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday as trade responds to the 10 to 12-day weather forecast that shows drier conditions with slightly warmer temperatures. Last week’s WASDE report showed that yields are expected to be large, but the near-term forecast could stress the crop.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is now 91.28% complete which compares to 77.88% completion at this time last year. Despite the fact that harvest is nearly completed, the USDA has a significantly higher estimate for Brazilian than CONAB.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds resuming their selling of grains. They sold 6,462 contracts of corn as of August 13 which left them net short 249,007 contracts. Since the 13th, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 8,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday as the 10-day hot and dry forecast supports both soybeans and corn. On Friday, November soybeans made a new contract low but are recovering today. Soybean meal is leading the way higher and soybean oil has turned positive thanks to gains in palm oil.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 332,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of soybeans as of August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position and funds are estimated to have sold an additional 2,500 contracts since the 13th.

Wheat is mixed at midday with the Minneapolis contracts slightly lower, while Chicago and KC wheat are trading mostly higher. Across the board, wheat has rebounded from its earlier morning lows as it follows corn and soybeans higher. The US Dollar is trading at its lowest levels of the year, which is supportive for exports.
Russian wheat export values are said to be near season lows at $218 per mt FOB. This has been keeping pressure on global wheat markets as Russia remains the dominant exporter.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of 1,956 contracts of Chicago wheat, which left them net short 73,288 contracts as of August 13. Since then, funds were estimated to have sold an additional 250 contracts.

Amanda Brill