TFM Morning Update 08-21-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as the December contract continues to hang around the 4-dollar level. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour will be sampling fields in Illinois and Iowa today where yields are likely to be the highest of the tour. So far the tour has found strong yields but not as strong as the USDA’s record projection.
Temperatures are expected to remain mild across the Midwest through this week before a warm front moves through this weekend raising temperatures as well as bringing a chance for a few light showers. Moisture chances are better later next week with a much stronger system expected to roll through.
With the rise in corn basis in both Brazil and Ukraine, the US currently has the cheapest corn offers for export in the world.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, with a mostly dry seven-day forecast and strong demand soybeans are looking to put a short-term bottom in place.
US soybean export offers out of the Gulf of Mexico are currently near a 60-cent discount to Brazil. Chinese buying of US soybeans is expected to continue given this sharp price advantage.
Chinese soybean imports in the first seven months of 2024 totaled 43.5 mmt. The US supplied just 12.6 mmt of that total, this is down 25% from last year.

All three wheat classes are trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning as prices remain off their lows but rangebound.
Spring wheat harvest was 31% complete as of Sunday, this is 5% slower than the average pace. Conditions ratings in the two largest producers, North Dakota and Minnesota remain high at 78% and 87% good to excellent, respectively.
With spring wheat harvest underway and winter wheat harvest mostly wrapped up, there has been little new news for the US wheat markets to trade on. A falling US Dollar Index has been supportive as of late and should continue to bode well for US wheat exports.

Keegan Madigan