TFM Midday Update 08-21-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but remains mostly rangebound with December finding support around 390 and resistance at the 4-dollar mark. The dry 12-day forecast is likely adding some support, but overall news is sparse.
The US is now the world’s cheapest offer for corn after basis levels in Brazil and Ukraine both rose significantly. US exports have improved as a result, and Monday’s Export Inspections report had corn inspections at 45.9 mb for last week.
Ahead of the EIA report, estimates for the weekly ethanol production survey suggest a decline in production to 1.066 million barrels per day, down from last week. The average stocks estimate is also slightly lower, at 23.339 million barrels compared to 23.354 million barrels a week ago.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher today, with the November contract now 22 cents above last week’s contract low. Support has come from a fresh wave of export sales reported this morning, along with strength in crude oil and both soy products.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This follows sales of 371,392 mt from yesterday.
In India, exports of seed oilmeals in July are expected to rise by 451,794 tons from 335,196 tons in June according to the Solvent Extractors Association of India. This could pressure soybean meal prices in the US.

The US spring wheat harvest is keeping hedge pressure on the wheat market in general. Strong yields have been noted, but recent wetness in that region of the country is bringing talk about quality issues that are possible.
Despite global news trending friendly for wheat prices, US wheat is still priced at a level that limits potential export demand. The wheat market may remain susceptible to selling pressure to try and uncover additional demand.
The US Dollar stays under pressure with the prospects of easing monetary policy. The dollar Index is trading at its lowest point since Dec 2023. The weaker dollar should help support demand for US wheat on the export market.

Amanda Brill