TFM Morning Update 09-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning in anticipation of the USDA’s supply and demand report, and futures are now trading above the 50-day moving average. The forecast for the Corn Belt remains dry and warm.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25 falling slightly as trade expects a decline in yield to 182.7 bpa from 183.1 bpa last month. Production is estimated at 15,105 mb compared to the guess of 15,147 mb last month.
Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana yesterday and is bringing heavy rains and flooding to the Gulf states with some rains reaching as far North as southern Illinois. Harvest is basically over in the southern states but Kentucky and Tennessee are beginning harvest and are vulnerable to heavy rains.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have brought the November contract back above the $10.00 mark as rains from the hurricane threaten states that are beginning to harvest soybeans. In Mississippi, 32% of the soybean crop is harvested.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see a small decline in 23/24 ending stocks but an increase in 24/25 ending stocks from 560 mb to 568 mb. Yields are expected to increase slightly, and world ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Demand has been strong lately with profitable crush margins driving domestic demand and Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans driving export demand.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as winter wheat planting begins with very dry conditions in the southwestern Plains. The La Nina conditions that were anticipated to come this summer are now expected to hit in the fall.
There is not much expectation for major changes in wheat in today’s WASDE report, but it is likely that ending stocks will be lowered as a result of a significant increase in export sales. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be lowered.
In the Black Sea region, both Russia and Ukraine are dry, but Ukraine is forecast to receive widespread showers next week. Estimates for Russia’s wheat crop have been cut by 1.6 mmt due to the lack of rain.

Amanda Brill