TFM Morning Update 09-13-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s WASDE report and volatile trade that managed to see prices higher despite a bearish yield number. Lower ending stocks were the bullish piece of the report.
Yesterday, CONAB released its estimates for Brazilian corn production which saw them increasing the number to 115.72 mmt from 115.65 mmt last month. Ending stocks in the country were increased to 5.05 mmt from 4.97 mmt.
Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana earlier this week and brought heavy rains to the southern states and now showers into southern Illinois and Indiana. Illinois and Indiana are the top 2 yielding states with Illinois at 222 bpa and Indiana at 210 bpa.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after the USDA released numbers for soybeans that were friendlier than expected as yield remained unchanged rather than raised as was expected. Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower this morning.
Export demand has picked up for US soybeans under $10.00 which has been very supportive. 54 mb were sold last week, and new crop sales are only down 14% from a year ago and have risen from a 45% deficit last month.
Brazil has had months of dry weather and much of the upcoming price action will rely on the weather in the country going forward. They are forecast to receive showers in the South, but central Brazil is still forecast to remain dry for another 10 days. With appropriate rains, Brazil would likely produce a new record crop in 2025.

All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher as higher Paris milling wheat is supportive along with adverse global weather.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA lowered its estimate of European wheat production by 4 mmt to 124 mmt due to excessive rains which are now delaying winter wheat planting. The Black Sea region remains dry.
In the Black Sea region, both Russia and Ukraine are dry, but Ukraine is forecast to receive widespread showers next week. Estimates for Russia wheat crop have been cut by 1.6 mmt due to the lack of rain.

Amanda Brill