TFM Midday Update 09-12-2024

CORN

December corn continues to trade above the 50-day moving average on expectations that the USDA will slightly lower corn production in today’s WASDE report.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report are that the USDA will lower corn production from 15,174 mt to 15,076 mt and lower yield from 183.1 bpa to 182.4 bpa.
Rosario Grain Exchange views corn acres in Argentina for 24/25 falling 21%.
Strategie Grains lowered their EU corn production estimate from 60 mmt to 57.9 mmt due to drought conditions.
USDA reported an export sale of 118,626 mt of corn sold to unknown destination for the 24/25 crop year this morning.
Weekly corn export sales came in below expectations at 26 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 526 mb are 20% ahead of last year.

The soy-complex is trading higher at midday ahead of the WASDE report on fears that hurricane Francine will disrupt harvest in the Delta and Southwestern regions.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report range slightly but overall sentiment is that the USDA could raise soybean yield and increase 24/25 ending stocks.
The Chinese Ag Ministry has increased their 2023/24 soybean import estimate to 102 mmt, up from 98 mmt in their last forecast.
The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates that soybean acres in Argentina will grow roughly 7.5% to 17.7 million hectares.
Brazilian oilseed crushing group, Abiove, lowered their soybean production forecast from 153.20 mmt to 153 mmt. The group also raised soybean meal exports from 21.7 mmt to 22 mmt.
Weekly soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 54 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 523 million bushels are 14% below a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday due to drought in the Plains states and lower EU production.
Trade estimates for today’s WASDE report reflect very few changes to wheat but USDA could lower ending stocks due to increased export sales.
Strategie Grains has lowered their EU soft wheat production forecast by 2 mmt to 114.4 mmt.
Weekly wheat export sales came in at 17 million bushels, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments of 396 million bushels are 30% ahead of last year.

Tanner Wilson