TFM Midday Update 9-18-2024

CORN

The corn market is currently trading in a tight 3 ½ cent range, alongside a supportive soybean market and a firmer wheat complex.
The markets are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s anticipated cut in short-term interest rates later today. While a rate cut is widely expected, there is debate whether it will be a 0.25% cut or 0.50%. Lower US interest rates can weigh on the US dollar, which can be friendly to US export prices.
The EIA released its ethanol production report showing that, for the week ending September 13, ethanol production dropped more than expected to 1.049 million barrels per day, with stocks at 23.785 million barrels, compared to the expected 23.74 million.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s corn exports to reach 6.63 million metric tons in September, up from 6.47 mmt the previous week.

November soybeans traded above the 50-day moving average for the first time since late May, with support coming from firmer soybean oil, which is currently up on rising world veg oil prices. Soybean meal is trading mixed.
India’s edible oil demand is expected to remain strong, according to a Reuters report, despite a 20% hike in import tariffs on crude and refined edible oils. Cooking oils remain affordable, and consumption is anticipated to grow 2% – 3% due to rising prosperity and a growing population. India imports about 70% of its cooking oil needs.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s soybean exports to reach 5.83 million metric tons in September, up from 5.51 mmt the previous week.

The wheat complex is trading firmer across all three classes as it continues to consolidate from Monday’s slide, with little fresh news to move prices significantly.
On the weather front, dry conditions continue to affect the Black Sea region and are expected to continue into late September. While there was a report of another frost in southeast Australia, though the threat was apparently minimal. Showers are moving through the US plains this week and weekend, which should help winter wheat establishment.
While Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with offers near $216 per metric ton. The anticipated cycle of monetary easing by the Fed may help US wheat export prices be more competitive.

Scott Masters