TFM Morning Update 02-19-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and has broken out of its recent trade range and above the 5-dollar mark in the March contract. This is the highest level corn has been since the end of March 2024.
Yesterday’s export inspections were strong with 63.4 mb of corn inspected for export. This was above the highest range of trade estimates and put year to date shipments at 546 mb.
Weather in South America has improved with more significant rains in Argentina and a mix of rain and sun in Brazil. The safrinha corn plantings in Brazil are estimated at 36% complete.

Soybeans are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex. Disappointing NOPA crush and export inspections have not helped prices rally like corn and soybeans. Soybean meal is lower while oil is higher.
Yesterday’s inspections report sale 720k tons of soybeans inspected for export compared to 1,097k the previous week and 1,292k a year ago. Primary destinations were China, Egypt, and Mexico.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush came in at 200.38 million bushels for January which was down from the previous month’s 206.6 mb and was also below trade estimates.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day, and March Chicago wheat broke above the 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since the beginning of October.
Yesterday’s export inspections were disappointing for wheat with 250k tons inspected compared to 570k the previous week and 420k a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, South Korea, and Panama.
The winter wheat crop in Texas was downgraded to just 33% good to excellent as of February 16. Crops rated poor to very poor rose by 6 points to 24% as cold temperatures and lack of snow coverage damage the crop.

Amanda Brill