TFM Morning Update 02-20-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and is back above the 5-dollar mark in March after sliding at yesterday’s close to $4.97. Yesterday, prices were likely brought lower by the large correction in the wheat complex.
Weather in South America has improved with more significant rains in Argentina and a mix of rain and sun in Brazil. The safrinha corn plantings in Brazil are estimated at 36% complete.
Estimates for the Weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.078m barrels per day while stockpiles are estimated at 25.731m bbl which would compare to 25.692m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after selling off at yesterday’s close and was driven by soybean oil which led soybeans higher to start the day but collapsed after meeting resistance. Soybean meal is lower today while bean oil is higher.
Agroconsult has cut their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop by 1.1 mmt but the new estimate is still a record at 171.3 mmt. This would be 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop with the center North region making up most of the gains.
In Argentina, high temperatures are expected to return to the grain belt while further rains look to come next week. Both soybeans and corn are in critical development stages there.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with Minneapolis wheat leading the way. Yesterday, all wheat contracts reversed lower after breaking a few cents above the 200-day moving average.
The winter wheat crop in Texas was downgraded to just 33% good to excellent as of February 16. Crops rated poor to very poor rose by 6 points to 24% as cold temperatures and lack of snow coverage damage the crop.
In France, 2025 wheat plantings are up 10% on improved weather with 6.35 million hectares of winter grains planted for the 2025 harvest. This is up 7.2% from last year’s plantings.

Amanda Brill