TFM Morning Update 02-27-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning before the USDA will release their estimates for 2025 planted acres. May futures have lost 24 cents from last week’s high, and tomorrow is first notice day for March corn.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,650k tons with an average guess of 1,163k tons. This would compare to 1,454k a week ago and 1,247k a year ago at this time.
Analysts are expecting the USDA to announce that corn planted acres for 2025 will come in at 93.6 ma which would compare to 90.6 ma last year. This would put ending stocks at 1.91 bb compared to ending stocks in 24/25 of 1.54 bb.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning as traders expect the USDA to put out a lower planted acreage report today. Soybeans have been in a slow downtrend over the past month. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 409k tons. This would be a weak number and would compare to 500k last week and 17k a year ago.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum, set to conclude this week, is expected to project 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC trading lower while Minneapolis is slightly higher. March Chicago wheat has given up nearly 50 cents since last week after breaking above the 6-dollar mark.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 650k tons with an average estimate of 481k tons. This would compare to 631k last week and 322k a year ago at this time.
Today’s outlook forum is expected to estimate wheat planted acres at 46.7 ma which would be slightly higher than last year’s 46.1 ma. Ending stocks are estimated to be higher at 0.83 bb compared to 0.794 bb last year.

Amanda Brill