CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market faced additional selling pressure on Wednesday, as First Notice Day and expectations for a large acreage projection at the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday triggered further long liquidation.
• The USDA will release its baseline projection at the Ag Outlook forum on Thursday morning. These are baseline budgetary items but give the market a possible direction for 2025-26 marketing year. Expectations are for the USDA to forecast 93.6 million acres of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. This would be up 3 million acres for 24-25. If realized, potential carryout projections for the next marketing year could push back towards the 2-billion-bushel level.
• February 28 is first notice day for March futures, which can trigger additional volatility and selling pressure on the market.  Traders who hold long March futures positions need to roll those positions or risk delivery after that date.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales data on Thursday, with expectations for new sales for the week ending February 20 ranging from 900,000 to 1.65 MMT. The last reported export sale was on February 14, yet overall sales remain ahead of pace for the marketing year.
• Weekly ethanol production slipped last week to 318 million gallons, down 1 million from last week.  Production was still at the top of expectations. Approximately 108 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol production, which is still trending ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower today as pressure from Brazil’s ongoing harvest continues, but May futures found support at the 50-day moving average both yesterday and today. First notice day for March soybeans is on Friday which could be pressuring prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum see analysts expecting a decline in soybean planted acres in 2025 in favor of corn acres. The average trade estimate sees soybean acres at 84.4 million compared to 87.1 ma last year. These are only rough estimates but would be friendly.
• Tomorrow’s USDA Outlook Forum will also show estimates for 25/26 US ending stocks that see soybean ending stocks unchanged from last year at 0.380 billion bushels, but the range is anywhere from 0.282 to 0.434 billion bushels.
• In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat continued to fade lower today, with Minneapolis futures leading the way down. A lower close for Matif wheat futures and a higher US Dollar Index offered no support. Without much other fundamental news to drive the market, technical momentum is dragging wheat lower.
• Reports suggest Ukraine has agreed to allow U.S. access to a portion of its mineral resources, though details remain unclear. Speculation that this could indicate progress toward ending the war with Russia may be pressuring wheat prices, as a resolution could lead to increased wheat exports from the region.
• A Reuters poll projects U.S. wheat stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to rise by 35 million bushels to 830 million. Traders will look to the USDA’s estimates at this week’s Outlook Forum, though history suggests the agency tends to underestimate stocks at this stage, having done so in 10 of the past 11 years.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures posted some modest gains today with the March contract up 12 cents to close at $18.82 and April up 5 cents to close at $18.45.
• Spot cheese gained 0.6250 cents to close out the day at $1.83250/lb. Whey was again unchanged and remained at $0.5350/lb.
• Class IV futures saw losses across the board today with April down 34 cents to close at $18.64.
• Spot butter lost 1 cent to close at $2.3350/lb. Spot powder gained 0.75 cents to close up at $1.2075/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill