CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures faced strong selling pressure on Thursday due to soft export sales, the USDA Outlook Forum, First Notice Day, and the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. March corn futures closed at their lowest level since the January WASDE report.
• The USDA outlook for gave baseline projections for corn acreage for the 2025-26 marketing year on Thursday morning. The USDA feels that U.S. producer could plant 94 million acres of corn in the next marketing year. This was up 3.4 million for 2024-25. The increased acres could push early carryout projection toward 2.0 billion for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• Weekly corn export sales were disappointing this week. For the week ending February 20, the USDA reported new sales of 795,000 mt, below the low end of analysts’ expectations. The market may be concerned about slowing demand due to higher corn prices and the approaching harvest of South American corn. Total sales are still running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, slightly down from 29% last week.
• President Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, scheduled to take effect on March 4, will proceed as planned. Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, and the market is concerned about the potential for retaliatory tariffs or a loss of demand. Additionally, President Trump revealed a 10% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, also set to be activated on March 4.
• The Buenos Aires grain exchange saw the Argentina corn crop conditions improve last week and rainfall has turned more beneficial. Corn conditions rose to 21% Good/Excellent, up 3% over last week’s total. Weather forecasts remain wet for key growing regions, which should help support the crop.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after starting higher, fading into the close under pressure from corn and wheat, which led the market lower. This morning’s acreage report from the USDA was supportive for soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting the larger losses.
• This morning, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum released its estimates for the 2025 planted acres, and for soybeans, they are estimating 84.0 million acres. This would be down from last year’s 87.1 ma as the USDA assumes that acres will be given to corn. This would put ending stocks at 320 million bushels.
• Today’s export sales report showed another week of disappointing soybean sales. The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 35.7 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
• On March 4, it is expected that President Trump will enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after pushing the tariffs off 30 days ago. While it is possible that further negotiations could delay these tariffs again, the market will likely be volatile until it is confirmed.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures took a hit today, posting sharp losses across all three classes. Traders’ focus was on the USDA’s remarks, but a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, a lower close for Paris milling wheat, and declines in corn and soybeans all weighed negatively on the wheat market. Additionally, reports indicate that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin next week, adding further pressure to the grain markets.
• At the USDA Outlook Forum today, 2025 wheat acreage was estimated at 47 million, an increase of 0.9 million from last year. Additionally, the trendline yield of 50.1 bpa would result in a production estimate of 1.926 bb and ending stocks of 826 mb. While these numbers were largely in line with expectations, the absence of supportive news contributed to the negative price action today.
• The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.9 mb fell under the 20.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 850 mb. Sales commitments at 733 mb for 24/25 are up 10% from last year, which is behind the USDA estimated pace.
• IKAR has reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports for 24/25 by 0.5 mmt to 42.5 mmt. Additionally, their range of production estimates declined. In a normal scenario, they project wheat production to decline from 82 to 81 mmt. Under optimal conditions, their estimate has been reduced from 87 to 85 mmt. In a negative scenario, their forecast remains unchanged at 77 mmt.
• On a bullish note, above-average temperatures are forecasted for India in March, which could potentially reduce wheat yields as the crop matures. After three consecutive years of poor yields, India may need to import wheat if the 2025 harvest is not abundant.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were green today with March leading the way, gaining 18 cents from Wednesday’s close to finish at $19.00.
• Spot cheese was up a half cent, entering Friday down 1.25 on the week. Spot whey lost a penny for a total of 2 cents on the week.
• Class IV futures continued their break today with most holding double digit losses. Second month March was down 9 cents to $18.94.
• These losses came with a 1 cent jump on spot butter and a 0.75 cent fall in powder. Those products are down 7 and 4 cents on the week, respectively.

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Author

Brandon Doherty