CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The end of the month of February saw strong selling pressure and long liquidation in the corn market as prices post sharp losses. The May contract lost 35 ½ cents on the week and closed at its lowest levels since January 9. Corn prices have dropped nearly 50 cents off the high from last week.
• The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution over the weekend. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.
• Managed money entered the week with a near-record long position, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction. Seasonal trends and an overbought market triggered this week’s sell-off, leading to a sharp loss of momentum.
• December 2025 corn futures hit their lowest level since January 17 today, pressured by expectations of larger U.S. corn acres for the 2025-26 marketing year, as outlined in the USDA Outlook Forum.
• Despite the downturn, corn demand remains strong, with exports and ethanol production providing support. The recent price drop should help sustain demand as U.S. corn remains competitively priced on the global market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day despite a friendly acreage number from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum yesterday as poor export sales, Brazilian harvest, and general bearishness weigh on the grain market. Soybean meal was unchanged in the front months but lower in the deferred contracts while soybean oil led the complex lower.
• On March 4, President Trump is expected to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after previously delaying them by 30 days. While further negotiations could postpone the tariffs again, the uncertainty is likely to keep the market volatile.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 31-1/2 cents while November soybeans lost 30-1/4. May soybeans lost $3.70 to $300.20 and May soybean oil lost 3.22 cents to 44.12 cents. For the month, May soybeans lost 31-3/4, May soybean meal lost $9.40, and May soybean oil lost 2.40 cents.
• Since the bullish January WASDE report that saw soybean yields cut by 1 bpa, soybean futures have lost nearly 75% of their gains. Declining export demand has been a large factor with declining numbers since Brazil has begun exporting their crop at a more competitive rate. Support could come later in the year if dry weather continues into planting coupled with fewer soybean acres planted.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat closed lower again today. Kansas City futures were the downside leader. Another move higher for the US Dollar and continued tariff talk did not help the situation. Paris milling wheat futures did close slightly positive, which may signal that wheat is nearing a bottom after several sessions of long liquidation.
• The Russian agriculture ministry decreased their wheat export tax by 21% to 2,178 Rubles to mt, through March 11. However, the Russian wheat export quota that went into effect earlier this month still offers some hope for support in the wheat market.
• Warmer temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains early next week, with a storm system likely to bring beneficial rainfall. This could aid winter wheat emergence from dormancy and may have contributed to the weakness in Kansas City wheat futures.
• According to the European Commission, 24/25 grain production in the EU will fall from 255.8 mmt to 255.2 mmt in their latest estimate. Soft wheat production in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt to 111.8 mmt.
• French soft wheat conditions as of February 24 declined 1% from the week prior to 73% good to very good. For reference, this is above the 68% rating for the same time a year earlier.
• Ukraine’s ag ministry has said that total grain exports since the season began on July 1 have reached about 29 mmt. This is 1% below last year, for the same timeframe. Wheat exports, however, were up 3% year over year at 11.9 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures suffered lower trading on the day after a weak spot trade for its products. The 2025 Class III average moved 16 cents lower to $18.68.
• Spot cheese fell 6 cents on the day to $1.7775/lb which is its lowest price since mid-December. Spot whey continued its trend lower, losing 1.50 cents to close at $0.51/lb.
• Class IV futures were slightly lower on low volume trading. The 2025 Class IV average lost 2 cents to close out the week at $19.15.
• Both spot butter and powder were unchanged going into the weekend at $2.3450/lb and $1.20/lb respectively.

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Author

John Heinberg