TFM Morning Update 03-05-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning taking back all of yesterday’s losses and then some with the May contract back above the 200-day moving average in a seemingly bottoming chart formation.
The U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested yesterday afternoon that a trade compromise with Canada and Mexico could be achieved as soon as today. This comes on the heels of 25% tariffs placed on the two countries.
Estimates for today’s EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.072m barrels per day. Stockpiles are estimated at 27.557m bbl compared to 27.571m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex taking back part of yesterday’s losses. May soybeans are trading back above the 10-dollar mark, and both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Yesterday’s talk of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans shook the market, but in reality, they are unlikely to have a large effect on old crop sales, and there is optimism that an agreement can be made before new crop sales are impacted.
StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses after making new contract lows. Optimism is back in the market following President Trump’s speech to Congress last night.
Russian wheat production is reportedly unchanged despite extremely cold temperatures as they were accompanied by snow coverage. 25/26 Russian wheat production is estimated at 79.6 mmt.
U.S. winter wheat crop conditions were updated as of March 2, and Kansas and Oklahoma saw good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points and 1 point respectively. Crop conditions fell in Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Amanda Brill