TFM Midday Update 03-05-2025

CORN

Corn prices turn mixed at midday, remaining under pressure following last week’s USDA report showing nearly a 4% increase in U.S. corn planting estimates and ongoing tariff concerns.
The corn market remains volatile as tariff negotiations persist, but there is some relief following comments from the Commerce Secretary suggesting that tariffs with Mexico and Canada could be eased.
President Trump and the Mexican President have a call scheduled for tomorrow to discuss tariffs. If the corn tariff on Mexico is lifted, it could lead to a rebound in the corn market after a period of significant weakness in the last few trading sessions.
The average daily ethanol production for the week ending February 28th averaged 1.093 million barrels. It is estimated that the amount of corn used for this week’s ethanol production was 110.28 million bushels.

Soybean prices continue higher at midday following remarks from the U.S. Commerce Secretary suggesting that tariffs could be eased with Canada and Mexico. Soybeans and soybean meal are seeing gains, while soybean oil is trading lower.
USDA confirms 20,000 tons of soy oil to unknown destinations for the 24/25 year.
China purchased several cargo loads of Brazilian soybeans yesterday, while the U.S. Gulf basis is falling due to a lack of Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans.
Dr. Cordonnier kept the South American soybean estimate unchanged, as dry conditions persist in Brazil and northern Argentina. Central Argentina is forecast to receive heavy rains over the next five days, with potential flooding in some areas, though drier weather is expected to return once the rain passes.

Wheat prices continue to trade higher at midday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and the potential easing of tariffs, which is encouraging buying.
USDA confirms the U.S. export sale of 130,000 tons of wheat to South Korea for the 24/25 year.
LSEG kept their Russian production estimate unchanged at 79.6 mt but raised their EU27+UK production forecast to 139.4 mt, a 1.2% increase, as crop conditions have improved.
The U.S. Plains are expected to remain dry with moderate temperatures, while the Black Sea region is also forecast to stay dry. Wheat conditions in these areas are not expected to change at this time.

Lauren VandenLangenberg