CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures retreated from early session highs as the USDA made no adjustments to the supply and demand balance sheets in the March WASDE report. Continued selling pressure in the equity markets further limited gains in the corn market on Tuesday.
• The USDA’s March WASDE report, released Tuesday morning, kept all components of the corn supply and demand balance sheet unchanged from February, leaving carryover at 1.540 billion bushels. Market analysts had anticipated a slight reduction to 1.516 billion bushels, and the lack of revisions kept upside momentum in check.
• In the export market, U.S. corn remains highly competitive for importers through June. However, as South American supplies enter the market, increased competition is expected to weigh on bids.
• A sharp sell-off in equity markets may be contributing to a broader “risk-off” sentiment, as growing economic recession concerns limit capital flows into commodity markets.
• The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, trading at its lowest level since October 2024. A weaker dollar relative to other currencies should help support U.S. commodity purchases on the global market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower after giving back earlier gains in response to a largely uneventful WASDE report. Soybean oil led the complex lower, extending losses from yesterday following China’s announcement of tariffs on Canadian canola products. Soybean meal also ended the session in negative territory.
• Today’s WASDE report saw very few changes to soybeans with the U.S. ending stocks number unchanged from last month at 380 mb, but world stockpiles were reduced to 121.4 mmt from 124.3 mmt from February. Brazilian soybean production was left unchanged at 169.0 mmt and Argentina’s production was also unchanged at 49.0 mmt.
• China’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, oil, and peas sent Canadian prices tumbling, with spillover pressure weighing on U.S. soybean markets. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the U.S., China, and Canada has also contributed to soybean price weakness.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly 61% complete as of last Thursday which compares to 55% at this time last year which is impressive after the country’s late start to planting.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat classes posted modest losses today, as the USDA report leaned bearish for the market. Higher global production estimates and a 1.5 mmt reduction in Chinese imports weighed on prices, while lower Matif wheat futures provided no support for U.S. markets.
• The USDA raised U.S. 24/25 wheat carryout from 794 mb to 819 mb, while global ending stocks increased from 257.6 mmt to 260.1 mmt — both above average trade estimates. Additionally, U.S. wheat exports were lowered from 850 mb to 835 mb.
• World wheat production was revised higher from 793.79 mmt to 797.23 mmt, with increases coming from Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Australia. Russian export projections declined slightly by 0.5 mmt to 45.0 mmt, while Ukrainian exports held steady at 15.5 mmt. Australian exports rose by 1.0 mmt to 26.0 mmt.
• Select states released crop condition data yesterday afternoon. Winter wheat ratings in Kansas fell 2% to 54% good to excellent, while in Texas they declined by 6% to 28%. Oklahoma, however, saw an increase of 11% to 46% GTE. Above average temperatures this week along with high winds in the central and southern plains could zap soil moisture, which may result in worsening conditions.
• In Argentina, wheat planting will begin in May. Recent heavy rains in main growing areas have led to favorable conditions which could benefit the 25/26 wheat harvest. In recent years, Argentina has dealt with drought, so this moisture will be beneficial.
• According to Coceral, their combined EU and UK 2025 grain harvest estimate has declined from 297.8 mmt to 296.1 mmt. For soft wheat specifically, their estimate was reduced from 140.4 mmt to 137.2 mmt. However, that would still be above the 2024 harvest at 125.1 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were able to see a slight rebound from Monday’s trade. April futures improved 28 cents to close at $17.44.
• Spot cheese finally found some life, seeing its largest daily gain since February 10th at 3.875 cents to improve to $1.6575/lb. Whey lost a penny to go home at $0.48/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were able to put together a nice day of higher trading, thanks to a better spot trade for products. The April contract led the way closing 13 cents higher to $18.34.
• Spot butter has now strung together 5 straight sessions of higher trading, closing today at $2.33/lb. Powder was able to stop the freefall, closing 0.25 cents higher to $1.16/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill