CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong buying in the wheat and soybean markets, coupled with a firm export tone, helped support corn futures during Thursday’s session. Overall, prices consolidated, trading within the range established during Wednesday’s price action.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending March 6, US exporter posted new sales of 967,300 MT (38.1 mb) for the current marketing year.  This was up 6% from last week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the top buyer of US corn for that week.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn crop estimates to 44.4 MMT, down 1.5 MMT due to impacts from heat and dryness seen during the early part of the growing season.
• Brazil’s ag agency CNAB raised their corn production forecasts slightly higher in their March production report on Thursday.  The crop was raised to 122.76 MMT, up from 122.02 MMT in February.  Within in the report, CONAB did slightly lower the exportable second crop corn slightly, as the production increase was from Brazil’s first corn crop. Project corn ending stocks were 5.54 MMT for the 2024-25 marketing year, up 2.49 MMT over last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were higher to end the day, giving back nearly all of yesterday’s losses. Soybean meal led the complex higher following strikes at Argentinian soy crushing plants. Export sales were better than expected, which was supportive, but soybean oil followed crude oil lower.
• Today’s export sales were good for soybeans, with sales coming in above expectations at 967,300 mt of old crop and 13,400 mt of new. This put sales ahead of last year at this time by 14%. Soybean oil sales were within trade expectations, while soybean meal sales were below expectations.
• Arguably, the biggest bullish news today was the start of worker strikes at Argentine soy crushing plants. The oilseed workers’ union initiated the strike over layoffs and in protest against the actions of national security forces. This news sparked a strong rally in soybean meal, as Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean meal.
• In South America, Argentina is forecast to receive late rains that should be beneficial to both the soybean and corn crops. The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecasted soybean production at 46.5 mmt, along the same lines as the USDA. Early heat and drought damaged the crop.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in the green, led by Kansas City futures, with continued concerns over warm temperatures and high winds in the U.S. Southern Plains for the remainder of the week providing support to HRW prices.
• Weekly wheat export sales totaled 28.8 mb for 24/25 along with 3.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 8.2 mb were under the 20.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 835 mb. Total wheat sales commitments have reached 775 mb, up 14% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of March 11, an estimated 27% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, marking a 3% increase from the previous week. Spring wheat areas in drought remained steady at 39%, although this is 9% higher compared to the same time last year.
• Although a ceasefire agreement has been drafted between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia has yet to concur. News outlets this afternoon report that Putin has stated he agrees ‘in principle’ to a 30-day ceasefire, though the specifics still need to be worked out.
• IKAR has issued a new estimate of Russian wheat exports, lowering it again, this time by 1.5 mmt to 41 mmt. The USDA is sitting at a 45 mmt estimate. In related news, Ukrainian wheat 24/25 wheat exports have hit 12.4 mmt since the season began in July – this is up 3% year over year.
• According to FranceAgriMer, the expected French 24/25 soft wheat exports are now estimated at 9.58 mmt. This is down 1.7% from the February guess of 9.74 mmt and is said to be due to a 6% decline in non-EU sales. Additionally, the stockpiles estimate increased from 2.81 to 2.91 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were once again higher today, led by the strong spot session for spot cheese. April and August contracts saw the largest gains of 28 cents to close at $18.10 and $18.50, respectively.
• Spot cheese broke back above the $1.70/lb level today after tacking on 4.50 cents, closing at $1.7425/lb. Spot whey can’t find its footing, dropping 2.25 cents to go home at $0.4575/lb.
• Class IV milk followed its counterpart higher again today. December futures were the biggest mover, gaining 14 cents to close at $19.42.
• Class IV products were unchanged on today’s spot session. Butter still holds at $2.34/lb, while powder remains at $1.16/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg