TFM Morning Update 03-19-2025

CORN

Dalian corn futures were lower, while South Brazil remains dry. US Northwest Midwest is also dry, and US PNW corn prices remain the cheapest for Asian buyers — with Gulf prices now competitive for North Africa.
Trade is eyeing lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 million acres (up from 90.6 million last year) and summer weather is normal. Domestic corn feed use is facing competition from wheat and sorghum.
US March 1 corn stocks could reach around 8,200 million bushels, down from 8,352 million last year.

The May/July soybean meal spread widened to a record -8.00. US soymeal export prices are around $347, compared to Argentina at $332. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower, while palm oil and soyoil were higher.
Rain in central Brazil is slowing the harvest, while southern Brazil and Argentina remain dry — though Argentina is expecting rain next week.
The USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report is next. Trade expects US 2025 soybean acres near 83.0 million (down from 87.0 million last year) and stocks around 1,880 million bushels (up from 1,845 million last year). Trade tensions, tariffs, and global weather continue to fuel uncertainty.

Wheat is supported by dry weather across the US Southern Plains and the Black Sea. However, futures are struggling near key moving average resistance due to concerns about export demand and slowing global economies.
EU wheat exports are down 34% year-over-year. Iraq announced plans to export 2 million metric tons of wheat (typically imports 2–4 million), while Russia’s export estimate is 40.0 million metric tons (vs USDA’s 45.0 and 55.0 last year).
US 2025 all-wheat acres could reach 46.6 million (up from 46.0 million last year). March 1 stocks are expected to be around 1,225 million bushels (up from 1,089 million last year). There’s also a chance of rain in Kansas.

Matt Mattke