CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw selling pressure in the front end of the market to finish with mixed trade on the close Tuesday. A calmer wheat market allowed sellers to continue to liquidate long positions at the front end of the market.
• Technically, the May futures contract tested the 200-day moving average support level during the session. Failure of this point to hold would likely trigger additional long liquidation as speculators have been reducing their length in the market given market volatility.
• Traders are positioning ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Report at month-end, which could set the tone for old and new crop markets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with futures largely rangebound since the beginning of the month. Slow export demand and the Brazilian harvest which is nearly completed have kept soybeans from rallying significantly, but they remain off contract lows. Soybean meal led soybeans lower today while soybean oil was higher.
• Yesterday’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 70% as of March 13, the fastest pace on record per AgRural. The southeast and northern regions expect above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 647k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 854k the previous week and 700k tons a year ago. Soybean export demand in the future may weaken with the continuation of US tariffs on China.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in mixed fashion today, fading off of earlier strength; Kansas City futures remained the upside leader. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close, offering no direction for the US market. Relative weakness into the close might be explained by a storm system expected to bring precipitation to much of the central plains and Midwest over the next 48 hours.
• Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings – Texas and Oklahoma conditions held steady at 28% and 46% good to excellent, respectively. However, ratings in Kansas declined 4% to 48% GTE, while Colorado fell 7% to 60% GTE.
• President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin for over an hour regarding the Ukraine war, with reports indicating a potential 30-day ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure.
• As of March 16, European Union soft wheat exports have reached 14.92 mmt since the export season began in July. This total is down 35% from the same time period last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices were down for the third day in a row with the second month April contract dropping 20 cents to $16.96.
• Spot cheese was 6.25 cents lower to move back under the $1.60 mark for the first time in 11 months. Spot whey was up a cent to $0.46/lb.
• Class IV milk futures took it on the chin with the Q2 contracts falling 19, 26, and 24 cents, respectively.
• After dropping 4 cents on Monday, spot butter was down 0.75 cents today. Spot powder was once again unchanged.
• While the Global Dairy Trade index was unchanged from March 4th, cheese and butter continued their march higher, widening the gap with weak US prices.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg