CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market ended mixed, with strong demand and a supportive Grain Stocks report lifting old crop prices, while a larger-than-expected planting estimate limited new crop gains.
• The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report projected 95.4 million acres of U.S. corn for the upcoming crop year — 965,000 acres above market expectations and 4.76 million acres more than last year. This marks the highest planted acreage since 2013-14, with the largest percentage increases seen in the Northwest and Southern regions, likely replacing soybean, spring wheat, and cotton acres.
• March 1 quarterly grain stocks for corn came in at 8.151 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations but 200 million bushels below last year, reflecting strong demand in the first half of the marketing year.
• The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. Export inspections remain strong at 1.614 MMT (63.6 mb) and above market expectations. Total export shipments are still trending 31% ahead of last year.
• With Monday’s USDA reports behind the market, attention now shifts to demand, South American weather, and looming tariff issues. The April 2 tariff deadline could be the most immediate factor influencing market direction.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were lower to end the day despite a friendly Planting Intentions report. Much of this report seemed to be priced in over the course of last week, and now trade will focus on the upcoming tariffs which are set to be released on Wednesday. The size of the Brazilian soybean crop also remains a concern. Both soybean meal and oil were also lower to end the day.
• The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, slightly below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million acres and significantly lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Acreage adjustments remain possible ahead of planting.
• The Quarterly Grain Stocks report was largely in line with expectations, with March 1 soybean stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, slightly above the trade estimate of 1.901 billion and up from 1.845 billion a year ago.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 20,954 contracts which increased their net short position to 42,959 contracts. They sold 17,009 contracts of bean oil and 23,037 contracts of meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher, led by gains in spring wheat, as supportive USDA data, solid export inspections, and strength in Matif wheat provided a boost to the U.S. market.
• The USDA estimated March 1 wheat stocks at 1.237 billion bushels, up from 1.089 billion a year ago and slightly above trade expectations. However, the acreage report was the real driver, with all wheat acreage projected at 45.4 million acres — on the low end of estimates and down from 46.1 million acres in 2024. If realized, this would be the second smallest wheat planted area since 1919.
• In a breakdown by class, winter wheat acreage comes in at 33.3 ma, vs 33.4 ma last year. Spring wheat acres were projected at 10.0 ma, down from 10.6 ma a year ago. Finally, durum wheat acreage is estimated at 2.0 ma, compared with 2.1 ma in 2024.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 16 mb, bringing the total 24/25 inspections figure to 635 mb, up 16% from last year; this is slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 24/25 exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.
• According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted 551,800 hectares of spring grain is of last Friday – this is up 16% from the same time last year. Of that total, spring wheat has reached 79,800 hectares, up 17% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed but mostly lower today. The second month April contract fell 6 cents to $17.11.
• Spot whey was unchanged today while spot cheese fell a half cents to $1.63/lb. Both saw no loads traded.
• Most 2025 Class IV contracts were unchanged or higher today. April was unchanged while the soon-to-be second month May was up 8 cents to $18.28.
• Spot butter was a penny lower to start the week on one load trade, whereas powder was unchanged from Friday. 
• This week’s news events: Global Dairy Trade Auction on Tuesday, Dairy Exports on Thursday, and Dairy Products Production on Friday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty