CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices continued to climb throughout the session, supported by strength in the soybean complex and cautious optimism. Traders remain focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs set to take effect tomorrow, April 2nd, as well as ongoing analysis of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which confirmed an increase in corn acreage for the year.
• Heavy rains are expected to impact central Oklahoma and stretch northeast through Arkansas, Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana over the next five days, raising flood concerns that could delay spring fieldwork and planting.
• The 5-day weather outlook for Brazil predicts warm temperatures, while the 15-day forecast indicates wet weather across most of the country, excluding the Northeast. While the wet conditions may delay the first corn harvest, they will be beneficial for the growth of second-crop corn across Brazil’s growing regions.
• With the increase in corn acreage, ending stocks could easily surpass 2 billion bushels, with both old and new crop futures remaining strong. Corn demand continues to outpace expectations as U.S. corn remains one of the most affordable feed grains globally.
• Brazil continues to challenge the U.S. for the title of top corn exporter, but the U.S. remains the leader, producing 1.8 times the combined output of Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher today, gaining momentum from yesterday’s bullish Planting Intentions report. However, traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement set for 2 p.m. Central Time tomorrow. Uncertainty remains over potential measures, with the risk of harsh tariffs — particularly against China — potentially pressuring prices. Within the soybean complex, soybean meal edged slightly lower, while soybean oil provided support.
• Yesterday’s Prospective Plantings report pegged 2025 soybean acreage at 83.50 million acres, just below the average trade estimate of 83.76 million and notably lower than last year’s 87.05 million acres. Meanwhile, quarterly stocks aligned closely with expectations.
• The USDA February soybean crush is expected to come in at 188.7 million bushels according to analysts, which would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 mb crushed in January and down 2.4% from January last year at 193.3 mb.
• Yesterday, the USDA said 793k tons of soybeans were inspected for export which compared to 827k tons last week and 515k tons a year ago at this time. Export demand has been expectedly weak as Brazil remains competitive globally.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat was the weakest performer in the grain complex today but still managed to close higher across all contracts. Given the smaller-than-expected acreage figure in yesterday’s USDA report, the market’s muted reaction was somewhat surprising. Forecasted rainfall across much of the U.S. may be tempering bullish momentum.
• Select states released updated winter wheat crop conditions after yesterday’s close. The rating in Kansas held steady at 49% good to excellent. Conditions fell 9% in Montana, 4% in Oklahoma, 1% in South Dakota, and 5% in Texas, but increased 1% in Colorado and 7% in Nebraska.
• Some private estimates out of Australia suggest that their wheat production this year may total only 28.6 mmt due to drought. If accurate, that would be a 16% decline from last year. New South Wales and Western Australia have decent soil moisture, but it is far too dry in Victoria and South Australia.
• Argus has reduced their estimate of the Russian 25/26 wheat production to 80.3 mmt. This is down from 81.5 mmt previously. In the breakdown, the spring wheat was cut to 24.3 mmt due to a smaller planted area, but winter wheat actually increased to 56 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were weaker on the day, led by the May contract which lost 13 cents to close at $17.28. The 2025 Class III average lost 4 cents to close at $18.35.
• Spot cheese added 2.875 cents to close at $1.65875/lb. Whey lost half a cent to close at $0.4950/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were higher on the day, led by the September contract which gained 17 cents to go home at $18.72. The 2025 Class IV average gained 4 cents to close at $18.81.
• Spot butter was unchanged on the day at $2.34/lb while powder tacked on a penny to close at $1.1725/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg