TFM Midday Update 04-02-2025

CORN

Corn markets continue to decline as traders brace for the announcement of new tariffs expected during this afternoon’s tariff ceremony.
Traders remain concerned over the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a trade deal with Mexico, the U.S.’s largest corn buyer. Should a last-minute agreement be reached between the U.S. and Mexico today, it could provide a quick boost to the corn market.
A highly active weather pattern is expected to persist through the weekend across the central, eastern, and particularly the southeastern Corn Belt, where heavy rainfall is anticipated. While this could cause significant delays in spring fieldwork and early planting, the increased soil moisture is currently seen as a more critical factor.
StoneX updated their 1st crop corn production in Brazil to 25.9 mt, down from last month of 26.53 mt and 2nd crop Safrinha was lowered to 101.62mt, down from 102.13 last month.
Ethanol production rebounded to 312.5 million gallons, up from 310 million the previous week, however this is down 1% from the YA.

Soybean prices continue to show weakness at midday as traders await the tariff announcement President Trump is expected to make today at 3 p.m. Central Time. Concerns persist, as some countries adopt a hardline stance, while others, such as Israel and Vietnam, are easing tariffs on U.S. goods. As a result, soybean and soybean meal prices continue to decline, while soybean oil sees modest gains.
StoneX updated their Brazil production of soybeans to 167.54 mt, down from their previous estimate of 168.34 last month and compared to the USDA of 169.
USDA confirms the sale of 135,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in 24/25.
Early soybean planting in the U.S. is expected to be delayed as heavy rains are forecasted through the weekend in Arkansas, Kentucky, and the southern regions of Illinois and Indiana.

Wheat prices are trading mixed at midday with an improved weather outlook for the southern Plains, where soil moisture is expected to improve through the weekend. Traders continue to watch carefully as market pressure persists due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming tariff announcement and the forecast for drier weather afterward.
The Kremlin has expressed concerns to President Trump that Russia is adhering to the moratorium on energy strikes, while Ukraine is not. In response, President Trump has voiced dissatisfaction with both sides for failing to honor the agreement.
Ukraine’s April wheat exports are expected to reach 1 million tons, down from 1.1 million in March according to the deputy minister.
The weekly wheat state condition reports from USDA are expected to begin next Monday.

Lauren VandenLangenberg